October 10, 2011
REVISITING RECENT CORN STOCKS ESTIMATES
While the USDA’s estimate of the September 1, 2011 inventory of old crop corn is old news, there are ongoing questions surrounding the quarterly stocks estimates. For corn, quarterly stocks estimates have not been well anticipated since June 2010.
The June 1, 2010 estimate of stocks was surprisingly small and implied feed and residual use during the previous quarter that was too large. The September 1, 2010 estimate of stocks was larger than anticipated based on the level of June 1 stocks, but seemed to “correct” for the small estimate in June. The implied feed and residual use for the 2010-11 marketing year based on that estimate was reasonable.
The December 1, 2010 and March 1, 2011 estimates of stocks were marginally smaller than expected and implied a high rate of feed and residual use during the first half of the marketing year, 8 percent above that of the previous year. In contrast, the June 1, 2011 estimate of stocks was much larger than expected and implied a very dramatic slowdown in the rate of feed and residual use during the third quarter of the 2010-11 marketing year. Unlike in the previous year, the September 1, 2011 stocks estimate did not correct for the large June estimate, but instead compounded the implications of the June estimate. Implied feed and residual use of corn during the final quarter of the marketing year was unreasonably small and implied use for the last half of the 2010-11 marketing year was a third less than in the same period a year earlier. Such a large decline seems unreasonable given that the number of livestock fed was larger, average slaughter weights were about equal, implied feed and residual use of wheat was 45 million bushels less, feeding of soybean meal was down 4 to 5 percent, and feeding of distillers grains was only about 3 percent larger. Calculated feed and residual use of corn for the 2010-11marketing year is unreasonably small. The estimate of large September 1 stocks also appears at odds with the on-going very strong corn basis.
Explanations offered for the surprisingly large September 1 stocks include the possibility that the 2010 corn crop was under-estimated and/or the amount of corn used for ethanol production has been over-estimated. If correct, either of these explanations would result in a larger calculation for feed and residual use and might make sense if the September stocks estimate was the only one available for the year. However, neither explanation is consistent with the level of stocks on December 1, 2010 or March 1, 2011. In addition, the size of errors implied by these explanations would have to be very large to result in a reasonable calculation of feed and residual use for the year. Some speculate that stocks of the newly harvested crop were included in the estimate of “old crop” stocks. Such an inclusion would require unique reporting errors by survey respondents and those errors would have to be very large to result in a reasonable calculation of feed and residual use in the last quarter of the year. There is not an obvious problem with USDA methodology that has produced reasonable stocks estimates until recently.
The implied low level of feed and residual use last year complicates the forecast for the current year. Use might be expected to decline in 2011-12 due to a combination of unchanged hog numbers, declines in broiler chick placements, declining cattle feedlot inventories starting in early 2012, and a stable supply of distillers grains. But will use really decline from the extremely low level implied for 2010-11?
Corn prices declined after the release of the September 1 stocks estimate, but were already under pressure as a result of concerns about U.S. and world economic conditions and a general decline in commodity prices (excluding livestock). In addition, the corn market has been influenced by reports of better-than-expected yields. It is yet to be determined if “better-than-expected’ translates into “higher-than-forecast’. The USDA will release new corn production and consumption forecasts on October 12.
The recent decline in corn prices has resulted in profitable margins for almost all users of corn, suggesting that prices are low enough to encourage an increase in consumption. The USDA’s October reports will provide a new benchmark for evaluating consumption. After that, weekly estimates of exports, ethanol production, and broiler placements will provide information to gauge the pace of consumption relative to projections and to judge the price level.
Issued by Darrel Good and Scott Irwin
Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics
University of Illinois
Tuesday, October 11, 2011
Monday, October 3, 2011
October Calendar
What a great start to the fall season! I'll have more things to add to the calendar as they are sent to me! Keep checking for updates!
Tuesday, September 20, 2011
Imprelis Herbicide Banned from Sale, Use in Indiana
Adapted from the Purdue University News Service by Keith Robinson
The Office of Indiana State Chemist has banned the sale, distribution and use of Imprelis in the state after investigating hundreds of complaints and finding that the herbicide was responsible for damage to trees and ornamental plants..
The office this week is notifying lawn care companies and other professional users of the herbicide made by DuPont that the product's registration in Indiana has been canceled, said Dave Scott, pesticide administrator with the state chemist's office, based at Purdue University.
"The only thing they are permitted to do with it is return it to DuPont for disposal," Scott said. "We have been advised by DuPont that they will be reimbursed for it whether it is in a closed container or an open container. There is no reason to hold onto it."
Indiana's action follows a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency order in August requiring DuPont to stop selling and distributing it. The step Indiana took was necessary to prohibit others from selling and using it in the state, Scott said.
"Imprelis is already out there, so this is a way to plug any holes because the EPA order technically applied only to DuPont," Scott said. "Now, Imprelis cannot be sold, distributed or used by anyone in Indiana."
The office had notified DuPont in August that it intended to cancel the registration, and the company was given until Sept. 15 to appeal. Instead, the company voluntarily asked the state chemist to cancel it, Scott said.
DuPont and the EPA are working out procedures for recall of the chemical, Scott said.
Imprelis, with the active ingredient aminocyclopyrachlor, was approved by the EPA and registered in Indiana late last year for use by lawn care companies and other professionals. It was not available through retail sale.
The herbicide was intended to control a variety of broadleaf weeds such as ground ivy (creeping Charlie) and wild violet on lawns, golf courses, parks, cemeteries, athletic fields and sod farms.
Extension services in more than 20 states from Kansas to Pennsylvania reported cases of damage to trees and ornamentals possibly associated with Imprelis.
Imprelis became the target of complaints in Indiana in the spring from lawn care providers and their customers who suspected it was damaging trees – mainly evergreens –and ornamental plants near where it was applied. The state chemist in July urged lawn care providers not to use it until experts determined whether it was causing the damage. Since then, investigations have determined that Imprelis was the cause, Scott said.
The state chemist's office has investigated nearly 400 complaints about Imprelis since June, the most complaints about any herbicide Scott has seen in his 30 years at the state chemist's office. He said the office is finalizing the investigations and that property owners and applicators will receive a copy of the investigation report for their property.
DuPont earlier this month sent notices to users of Imprelis specifying how it would handle damage claims, Scott said. Those wanting to submit a claim must do so by Nov. 30.
"For anybody who calls in now with a complaint about Imprelis, we're encouraging them to contact DuPont to make sure they get their claims processed by the cutoff date," Scott said.
More information about Imprelis, including how to submit a claim to DuPont, is available on the state chemist's website at http://www.isco.purdue.edu.
The Office of Indiana State Chemist has banned the sale, distribution and use of Imprelis in the state after investigating hundreds of complaints and finding that the herbicide was responsible for damage to trees and ornamental plants..
The office this week is notifying lawn care companies and other professional users of the herbicide made by DuPont that the product's registration in Indiana has been canceled, said Dave Scott, pesticide administrator with the state chemist's office, based at Purdue University.
"The only thing they are permitted to do with it is return it to DuPont for disposal," Scott said. "We have been advised by DuPont that they will be reimbursed for it whether it is in a closed container or an open container. There is no reason to hold onto it."
Indiana's action follows a U.S. Environmental Protection Agency order in August requiring DuPont to stop selling and distributing it. The step Indiana took was necessary to prohibit others from selling and using it in the state, Scott said.
"Imprelis is already out there, so this is a way to plug any holes because the EPA order technically applied only to DuPont," Scott said. "Now, Imprelis cannot be sold, distributed or used by anyone in Indiana."
The office had notified DuPont in August that it intended to cancel the registration, and the company was given until Sept. 15 to appeal. Instead, the company voluntarily asked the state chemist to cancel it, Scott said.
DuPont and the EPA are working out procedures for recall of the chemical, Scott said.
Imprelis, with the active ingredient aminocyclopyrachlor, was approved by the EPA and registered in Indiana late last year for use by lawn care companies and other professionals. It was not available through retail sale.
The herbicide was intended to control a variety of broadleaf weeds such as ground ivy (creeping Charlie) and wild violet on lawns, golf courses, parks, cemeteries, athletic fields and sod farms.
Extension services in more than 20 states from Kansas to Pennsylvania reported cases of damage to trees and ornamentals possibly associated with Imprelis.
Imprelis became the target of complaints in Indiana in the spring from lawn care providers and their customers who suspected it was damaging trees – mainly evergreens –and ornamental plants near where it was applied. The state chemist in July urged lawn care providers not to use it until experts determined whether it was causing the damage. Since then, investigations have determined that Imprelis was the cause, Scott said.
The state chemist's office has investigated nearly 400 complaints about Imprelis since June, the most complaints about any herbicide Scott has seen in his 30 years at the state chemist's office. He said the office is finalizing the investigations and that property owners and applicators will receive a copy of the investigation report for their property.
DuPont earlier this month sent notices to users of Imprelis specifying how it would handle damage claims, Scott said. Those wanting to submit a claim must do so by Nov. 30.
"For anybody who calls in now with a complaint about Imprelis, we're encouraging them to contact DuPont to make sure they get their claims processed by the cutoff date," Scott said.
More information about Imprelis, including how to submit a claim to DuPont, is available on the state chemist's website at http://www.isco.purdue.edu.
Friday, September 16, 2011
September Calendar
I know September is already half over, but the fall workshops have just begun!
Keep checking back and I'll try to update this calendar once a week!
Keep checking back and I'll try to update this calendar once a week!
Bovine TB Investigation Ends, Wild Surveillance Continues
CONTACT: Denise Derrer, BOAH Public Information Director, 317-544-2414; dderrer@boah.in.gov
Phil Bloom, DNR Communications Director, 317-232-4003; pbloom@dnr.in.gov
INDIANAPOLIS (15 September 2011)— The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) staff has completed testing for bovine tuberculosis of all livestock herds linked to animals associated with the infected (or “index”) herd. Quarantines on the index site, located in Dearborn County, were officially released in August, after the site and facilities were depopulated, cleaned and disinfected, then left empty for 60 days.
The investigation began in late December, when a Mycobacterium bovis-positive beef cow that tested positive at slaughter was traced to Southeastern Indiana. Since then, BOAH staff tested more than 1000 head of cattle and 3 goats that had contact with high-risk animals associated with the index herd. Another 174 animals in 10 states were also traced to or from the herd.
Throughout the investigation, only 15 beef animals, all part of the index herd, tested positive on culture for the disease. All were euthanized for confirmatory testing.
As part of the investigation, 47 free-ranging white-tailed deer on or near the index site were collected by Indiana Department of Natural Resource (DNR) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Wildlife Services for testing. None tested positive for TB. Wildlife surveillance efforts will continue during this fall’s deer hunting season.
Since 2009, more than 690 deer from Franklin, Fayette, Harrison and Wayne counties have been sampled for TB when hunters check their animals at DNR stations. With the latest cattle case, that surveillance will be expanded to include Dearborn County.
Indiana has held a bovine tuberculosis-free status since 1984 with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Under federal guidelines, that status remains. The last time a Hoosier cattle herd tested positive for the disease was in the 1970s.
About Bovine TB
Bovine tuberculosis is a chronic bacterial disease that affects primarily cattle, but can be transmitted to any warm-blooded animal. TB is difficult to diagnose through clinical signs alone. In the early stages of the disease, clinical signs are not visible. Later, signs may include: emaciation, lethargy, weakness, anorexia, low-grade fever and pneumonia with a chronic, moist cough. Lymph node enlargement may also be present. Cattle owners who notice these signs in their livestock should contact their private veterinarian.
More information about the disease and details for this fall’s hunting season will be available online at: www.in.gov/dnr and www.in.gov/boah .
Phil Bloom, DNR Communications Director, 317-232-4003; pbloom@dnr.in.gov
INDIANAPOLIS (15 September 2011)— The Indiana State Board of Animal Health (BOAH) staff has completed testing for bovine tuberculosis of all livestock herds linked to animals associated with the infected (or “index”) herd. Quarantines on the index site, located in Dearborn County, were officially released in August, after the site and facilities were depopulated, cleaned and disinfected, then left empty for 60 days.
The investigation began in late December, when a Mycobacterium bovis-positive beef cow that tested positive at slaughter was traced to Southeastern Indiana. Since then, BOAH staff tested more than 1000 head of cattle and 3 goats that had contact with high-risk animals associated with the index herd. Another 174 animals in 10 states were also traced to or from the herd.
Throughout the investigation, only 15 beef animals, all part of the index herd, tested positive on culture for the disease. All were euthanized for confirmatory testing.
As part of the investigation, 47 free-ranging white-tailed deer on or near the index site were collected by Indiana Department of Natural Resource (DNR) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Wildlife Services for testing. None tested positive for TB. Wildlife surveillance efforts will continue during this fall’s deer hunting season.
Since 2009, more than 690 deer from Franklin, Fayette, Harrison and Wayne counties have been sampled for TB when hunters check their animals at DNR stations. With the latest cattle case, that surveillance will be expanded to include Dearborn County.
Indiana has held a bovine tuberculosis-free status since 1984 with the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Under federal guidelines, that status remains. The last time a Hoosier cattle herd tested positive for the disease was in the 1970s.
About Bovine TB
Bovine tuberculosis is a chronic bacterial disease that affects primarily cattle, but can be transmitted to any warm-blooded animal. TB is difficult to diagnose through clinical signs alone. In the early stages of the disease, clinical signs are not visible. Later, signs may include: emaciation, lethargy, weakness, anorexia, low-grade fever and pneumonia with a chronic, moist cough. Lymph node enlargement may also be present. Cattle owners who notice these signs in their livestock should contact their private veterinarian.
More information about the disease and details for this fall’s hunting season will be available online at: www.in.gov/dnr and www.in.gov/boah .
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