Darrel Good, Ag Economist; University of Illinois
The 2011-12 corn and soybean marketing years will be characterized by the need to reduce consumption of both crops. The magnitude of those needed reductions are not yet known and the prices needed to make those cuts will depend on the strength of underlying demand.
Based on the most recent USDA projections and the assumption that year ending stocks need to be maintained at or above 5 percent of consumption, corn use would need to be reduced by only about 30 million bushels, or 0.2 percent, during the year ahead. Soybean consumption would need to be reduced by 122 million bushels, or 3.7 percent. The actual reductions needed will depend on the final consumption estimates for the 2010-11 marketing year, the magnitude of old crop inventories on September 1, and the size of the 2011 harvest.
Unfolding evidence suggests that the 2011 U.S. corn crop could be smaller than the initial projection of 12.914 billion bushels. Preliminary certified acreage data released by USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) suggests that planted acreage fell short of the NASS estimate of 92.282 million acres. In addition, weather conditions since late July in conjunction with early harvest results and yield survey results suggest that the U.S. average yield may be below the initial USDA forecast of 153 bushels. The USDA will release new production forecasts on September 12 and October 12. The final FSA acreage data, along with any additional information from the monthly NASS surveys, will be incorporated in the October production forecast. History also suggests that the October yield forecast will be reasonably close to the final estimate. The corn market is clearly expecting a substantial reduction in the forecast of 2011-12 marketing year corn supplies.
For soybeans, there is less as well as conflicting evidence about potential crop size. The USDA’s initial forecast of the U.S. average yield of 41.4 bushels was surprisingly small. At the same time, August weather has not been uniformly favorable for soybean crop development and FSA acreage data suggests that planted acreage may have been even less than the 74.958 million estimated by NASS. Recent price behavior suggests that the market is expecting a smaller crop than the current USDA forecast of 3.056 billion bushels.
Some of the needed reduction in corn and soybean consumption during the 2011-12 marketing year may occur as a result of weaker demand. There are multiple sources of a potentially weaker demand scenario for U.S. corn and soybean crops. These include the generally weak economic environment and continued high unemployment rate that could weaken demand for meat and livestock products; the current abundance of competitively priced wheat that could be substituted for corn and soybean meal in livestock feed rations; lower energy prices that would weaken the demand for biofuels; and larger South American crops in response to the current high prices.
Depending on the size of the 2011 harvest and the size of the old crop inventories at the beginning of the 2011-12 marketing year, weaker demand may not be sufficient to ration supplies. The market is currently reflecting expectations that higher corn and soybean prices will also be required to limit consumption. The market response to prospects for smaller supplies suggests that a “short crop” price pattern for corn and soybeans may unfold during the year ahead. Such a pattern would point to a price peak very early in the marketing year and then declining prices as the year progresses as evidence of slowing consumption unfolded. Elements for a decline in the rate of consumption may already be in place. The number of cattle in feedlots, for example, is currently high due to drought conditions in the southwest. Feedlot numbers will likely decline over the coming year. The profitability of poultry, milk, and hog production is being reduced by current price relationships. The ethanol blender tax credit is due to expire at the end of 2011 so that ethanol production above the mandated level will require favorable blending margins. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty about demand for U.S. corn and soybeans. These uncertainties include corn demand from China and the size of the upcoming South American crops.
While a lot of unknowns persist, it now appears that smaller supplies will push corn and soybean prices even higher in the short run, with prices peaking early in the marketing year and moving erratically lower into the winter.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Monday, June 6, 2011
2011 American Forage & Grassland Conference
AFGC and the Indiana Forage Council invite you to join us for the 2011 AFGC Annual Conference June 12-15 at French Lick Springs Hotel in French Lick, IN. Part of the conference includes onsite tours of local farm and ag center operations. Below are the tour descriptions for 2011:
• 2011 AFGC Professional Tour Highlights
Hay Tour
The hay tour events will take place at the Southern Indiana Purdue Ag Center (SIPAC). This tour will combine educational workshops with new equipment field demonstrations. Presentations will cover various topics including “the past, present and future hay harvesting equipment” and matching equipment to harvesting conditions to make the highest quality end product. Mowers, tedders and rakes, balers, wrappers and other equipment will be demonstrated until designated fields are harvested and baled. These side-by-side equipment demonstrations are intended to show producers how the machines run when put in a field under sometimes not-so-ideal conditions. The demonstrations should be especially helpful to producers who are considering purchasing new or used equipment.
At SIPAC in Dubois County, researchers serve needs of farmers who work the sandstone-shale soils of the area. On the 1100 acre property researchers have a history of intense research in production and utilization of forages and agronomic crops, management of beef and dairy cattle, and catfish production. Current research concentrates on beef cattle management, grazing trials, forage and crop production, and forest management.
Beef Tour
Kaiser Farms
Jim and Doris operate a fourth-generation (since 1902) family farm in Crawford County, Indiana, with and their son, Jim Ed. They own 418 contiguous acres saddled across Williams Ridge between the Fleming Creek and the Allen Creek tributaries on the south side of Patoka Lake. Rotationally grazed permanent pastures (since 1946) of tall fescue, red clover, and ladino clover are maintained on 250 acres. An additional 150 acres of hay and pasture are leased from nearby owners. Eight farm ponds and three spring developments supply water year around through permanently located watering tanks to the cow herds. Intense soil and water conservation practices (grassed water ways, terraces, water and sediment control basins, and rock chute) control run-off into five intermittent streams originating on the farm which flow directly into Patoka Lake. Farm management focuses on sustainability and profitably of forage-livestock enterprise. Farm is a member of the Indiana Beef Cattle Association, Indiana Charolais Association, American-International Charolais Association, and Indiana Forestry and Woodland Owners Association
Cow Herd: A registered herd of Charolais cattle (established in 1959) consists of approximately 100 cows and replacement heifers is managed as a commercial herd. Herd bulls are leased from a local Charolais breeder. Four spring calving herds of approximately 25 cows are managed separately in rotationally grazed grass-legume pastures supplemented with hay during winter.
Marketing Breeding Cattle: Their breeding cattle marketing program consists of: (1) registered male and females for breeding are sold annually at the South Central Indiana Spring Charolais Sale at Milltown, Indiana; (2) annually entering 1-4 bulls into the Indiana Beef Evaluation Program (IBEP) bull test station; and (3) private treaty at the farm.
Marketing Feeder Cattle: Their finishing program focuses on retained ownership in feeders (1) finished in the Indiana Beef Evaluation Economics Feeding Program (IBEEF) custom feed lots in Indiana, (2) finished in custom feed lots of Laura’s Lean Beef, a program that promotes lean, muscular breeds of cattle raised without antibiotics and growth hormones, or (3) in similar local finishing programs. Carcass data collected at harvest from finishing programs is entered into the breed associations expected progeny difference (EPD) calculations and used in the selection of herd bull and heifer replacements.
Native hardwood forest growing on 118 acres is enrolled in the management plan of the Indiana Classified Forest & Wildlands program. Farmstead, ponds, roads and additional forested lands account for the remaining 50 owned acres. Intermediate timber harvests are taken every 15 to 20 years (last in 2010). Timber harvested from these acres is marketed as “Green Certified”. Membership is maintained in.
James Farm
Established in 1976, James Farms has strived to improve both the productivity of their land and cattle. Larry and Marlene James started with 5 heifers and quickly learned the value of a good fence between them and their neighbor as the bull came to visit. Since that time the herd has grown to 100 head of Simmental Angus commercial cows grazing on 220 acres in Perry county Indiana.
The herd is split into a spring and fall calving herds. The James’ utilizes artificial breeding on the heifers and 2nd calf cows and clean up with herd bulls. By utilizing the split herd they are better able to utilize their herd bull power. Another goal with the split herd is to have finished cattle available year around for their growing freezer beef business. With the recent addition of a small old dairy facility they now have a place to wean calves and feed them out away from the southern Indiana mud.
Larry and Marlene’s pasture base has grown over the years to accommodate the growing cow herd. The majority of the pastures are cool season grasses and clovers. Some area is used each year for summer annual forages for both high quality winter feed and grazing. Both the summer annuals and extra spring forage growth are made into baleage for better winter forage. They began into rotation grazing in 1997 with the installation of a water system that allowed for water to be in more locations in the pastures. Since that time efforts have been made to improve forages and forage management though the help of NRCS and Purdue Extension specialists.
Sheep and Goat Tour
Embree Farms
Embree Farms, producing registered and commercial hair sheep breeding stock, is located in Washington County, Indiana at the west edge of Livonia, a small community of 110 people. Embree Farms has been put together over the past eleven years. The farm originally consisted of 28 rolling acres of Karst topography full of sink holes and deep ditches plus a large pond. Two years later, another 25 adjoining acres were added. This past fall, another 10 acres with a 70 X 200 ft. riding arena and an old barn with 12 horse stalls were added for a total of 63 acres. An additional 100 acres in Lawrence County (a farm that has been in the Embree family for over 120 years) is currently being rented. The Hoosier Homestead farm is owned jointly by my brother and me.
Beginning with a herd of 12 Dorsett ewes, the livestock operation has progressed to an enterprise containing 300 sheep consisting of registered Katahdin and Dorper ewes and crossbred hair sheep. At one time, almost 400 ewes were making their home at Embree Farms. With the addition of the last 10 acres and the barns, I am changing my operation, The plan is to maintain a herd of 240 hair sheep ewes and employ the Cornell Star System for sheep which will consist of lambing three groups of 80 ewes five times a year inside the converted indoor riding area, selling registered and commercial breeding stock plus market lambs. In the past, ewes have lambed on grass in March and April with another group lambing in October. With the converted barn, ewes will lamb year around with each group of 80 ewes producing three lamb crops in two years.
The goal for Embree Farms is to provide year around grazing for the 160 ewes in the breeding and early gestation groups plus the ewe lambs and yearling ewes saved for breeding stock sales. Hay will be purchased for feeding the 80 ewes housed in the converted barn (riding arena). Commercial market lambs will be housed in the old stable, and lambs will be fattened for market utilizing alternative feed – currently soy hull pellets and corn gluten pellets.
To maintain year around grazing for the sheep, a rotational grazing program has been established using eight 3-acre paddocks of cool season grasses (tall fescue and orchard grass) plus legumes (red and ladino clovers) Approximately twelve acres of orchard grass, meadow brome and lespedeza divided into four paddocks are utilized for summer grazing. Twelve acres of winter annuals, oats, turnips, and cereal rye, are strip grazed in November and December. Stockpiled tall fescue is utilized for grazing in January, February, and March. The cereal rye is again strip grazed in April and early May. For the first time this year, I will be using a mini round baler to bale excess forage production from the cool season grasses which will be left in the paddocks to provide supplemental summer and/or winter forage.
The approximately 8 acres of pasture with the new barns is a work in progress; it has been allowed to deteriorate in the past (lots of dock and horse weeds). The goal is to convert this acreage into productive forage and eventually be able to provide at least half of the currently purchased hay.
SIPAC
The second stop on the sheep and goat tour will be at the Southern Indiana Purdue Ag Center (SIPAC). Since 2004 SIPAC has been home to a commercial meat goat operation. The herd consists of 100 crossbred females. Breed type is predominantly Boer X Kiko cross with young does being sired by a savannah buck. The herd is managed for commercial production with as little off the farm feed as possible and the end goal being profitable with local market sales of the finished animals. On this stop participants will have the opportunity to tour the goat facilities and hear from researchers from Purdue, University of Kentucky and Kentucky State University who have collaborated on the goat projects at SIPAC. Research projects that will be highlighted are finishing meat goats on summer annuals such as sorghum sudangrass, evaluation of treatment programs to improve internal parasite control, utilizing cross breeding to improve performance and parasite resistance, and utilizing goats for weed and brush control.
To register for the conference please go www.afgc.org and follow the links from the home page. Attendees may register online or by downloading a registration form. If you have any questions regarding details or registration for the 2011 AFGC Annual Conference please contact the AFGC National Office at 800.944.2342 or by email at info@afgc.org.
Once again, we appreciate your ongoing support for AFGC and look forward to seeing everyone in the Crossroad of America, June 12-15.
• 2011 AFGC Professional Tour Highlights
Hay Tour
The hay tour events will take place at the Southern Indiana Purdue Ag Center (SIPAC). This tour will combine educational workshops with new equipment field demonstrations. Presentations will cover various topics including “the past, present and future hay harvesting equipment” and matching equipment to harvesting conditions to make the highest quality end product. Mowers, tedders and rakes, balers, wrappers and other equipment will be demonstrated until designated fields are harvested and baled. These side-by-side equipment demonstrations are intended to show producers how the machines run when put in a field under sometimes not-so-ideal conditions. The demonstrations should be especially helpful to producers who are considering purchasing new or used equipment.
At SIPAC in Dubois County, researchers serve needs of farmers who work the sandstone-shale soils of the area. On the 1100 acre property researchers have a history of intense research in production and utilization of forages and agronomic crops, management of beef and dairy cattle, and catfish production. Current research concentrates on beef cattle management, grazing trials, forage and crop production, and forest management.
Beef Tour
Kaiser Farms
Jim and Doris operate a fourth-generation (since 1902) family farm in Crawford County, Indiana, with and their son, Jim Ed. They own 418 contiguous acres saddled across Williams Ridge between the Fleming Creek and the Allen Creek tributaries on the south side of Patoka Lake. Rotationally grazed permanent pastures (since 1946) of tall fescue, red clover, and ladino clover are maintained on 250 acres. An additional 150 acres of hay and pasture are leased from nearby owners. Eight farm ponds and three spring developments supply water year around through permanently located watering tanks to the cow herds. Intense soil and water conservation practices (grassed water ways, terraces, water and sediment control basins, and rock chute) control run-off into five intermittent streams originating on the farm which flow directly into Patoka Lake. Farm management focuses on sustainability and profitably of forage-livestock enterprise. Farm is a member of the Indiana Beef Cattle Association, Indiana Charolais Association, American-International Charolais Association, and Indiana Forestry and Woodland Owners Association
Cow Herd: A registered herd of Charolais cattle (established in 1959) consists of approximately 100 cows and replacement heifers is managed as a commercial herd. Herd bulls are leased from a local Charolais breeder. Four spring calving herds of approximately 25 cows are managed separately in rotationally grazed grass-legume pastures supplemented with hay during winter.
Marketing Breeding Cattle: Their breeding cattle marketing program consists of: (1) registered male and females for breeding are sold annually at the South Central Indiana Spring Charolais Sale at Milltown, Indiana; (2) annually entering 1-4 bulls into the Indiana Beef Evaluation Program (IBEP) bull test station; and (3) private treaty at the farm.
Marketing Feeder Cattle: Their finishing program focuses on retained ownership in feeders (1) finished in the Indiana Beef Evaluation Economics Feeding Program (IBEEF) custom feed lots in Indiana, (2) finished in custom feed lots of Laura’s Lean Beef, a program that promotes lean, muscular breeds of cattle raised without antibiotics and growth hormones, or (3) in similar local finishing programs. Carcass data collected at harvest from finishing programs is entered into the breed associations expected progeny difference (EPD) calculations and used in the selection of herd bull and heifer replacements.
Native hardwood forest growing on 118 acres is enrolled in the management plan of the Indiana Classified Forest & Wildlands program. Farmstead, ponds, roads and additional forested lands account for the remaining 50 owned acres. Intermediate timber harvests are taken every 15 to 20 years (last in 2010). Timber harvested from these acres is marketed as “Green Certified”. Membership is maintained in.
James Farm
Established in 1976, James Farms has strived to improve both the productivity of their land and cattle. Larry and Marlene James started with 5 heifers and quickly learned the value of a good fence between them and their neighbor as the bull came to visit. Since that time the herd has grown to 100 head of Simmental Angus commercial cows grazing on 220 acres in Perry county Indiana.
The herd is split into a spring and fall calving herds. The James’ utilizes artificial breeding on the heifers and 2nd calf cows and clean up with herd bulls. By utilizing the split herd they are better able to utilize their herd bull power. Another goal with the split herd is to have finished cattle available year around for their growing freezer beef business. With the recent addition of a small old dairy facility they now have a place to wean calves and feed them out away from the southern Indiana mud.
Larry and Marlene’s pasture base has grown over the years to accommodate the growing cow herd. The majority of the pastures are cool season grasses and clovers. Some area is used each year for summer annual forages for both high quality winter feed and grazing. Both the summer annuals and extra spring forage growth are made into baleage for better winter forage. They began into rotation grazing in 1997 with the installation of a water system that allowed for water to be in more locations in the pastures. Since that time efforts have been made to improve forages and forage management though the help of NRCS and Purdue Extension specialists.
Sheep and Goat Tour
Embree Farms
Embree Farms, producing registered and commercial hair sheep breeding stock, is located in Washington County, Indiana at the west edge of Livonia, a small community of 110 people. Embree Farms has been put together over the past eleven years. The farm originally consisted of 28 rolling acres of Karst topography full of sink holes and deep ditches plus a large pond. Two years later, another 25 adjoining acres were added. This past fall, another 10 acres with a 70 X 200 ft. riding arena and an old barn with 12 horse stalls were added for a total of 63 acres. An additional 100 acres in Lawrence County (a farm that has been in the Embree family for over 120 years) is currently being rented. The Hoosier Homestead farm is owned jointly by my brother and me.
Beginning with a herd of 12 Dorsett ewes, the livestock operation has progressed to an enterprise containing 300 sheep consisting of registered Katahdin and Dorper ewes and crossbred hair sheep. At one time, almost 400 ewes were making their home at Embree Farms. With the addition of the last 10 acres and the barns, I am changing my operation, The plan is to maintain a herd of 240 hair sheep ewes and employ the Cornell Star System for sheep which will consist of lambing three groups of 80 ewes five times a year inside the converted indoor riding area, selling registered and commercial breeding stock plus market lambs. In the past, ewes have lambed on grass in March and April with another group lambing in October. With the converted barn, ewes will lamb year around with each group of 80 ewes producing three lamb crops in two years.
The goal for Embree Farms is to provide year around grazing for the 160 ewes in the breeding and early gestation groups plus the ewe lambs and yearling ewes saved for breeding stock sales. Hay will be purchased for feeding the 80 ewes housed in the converted barn (riding arena). Commercial market lambs will be housed in the old stable, and lambs will be fattened for market utilizing alternative feed – currently soy hull pellets and corn gluten pellets.
To maintain year around grazing for the sheep, a rotational grazing program has been established using eight 3-acre paddocks of cool season grasses (tall fescue and orchard grass) plus legumes (red and ladino clovers) Approximately twelve acres of orchard grass, meadow brome and lespedeza divided into four paddocks are utilized for summer grazing. Twelve acres of winter annuals, oats, turnips, and cereal rye, are strip grazed in November and December. Stockpiled tall fescue is utilized for grazing in January, February, and March. The cereal rye is again strip grazed in April and early May. For the first time this year, I will be using a mini round baler to bale excess forage production from the cool season grasses which will be left in the paddocks to provide supplemental summer and/or winter forage.
The approximately 8 acres of pasture with the new barns is a work in progress; it has been allowed to deteriorate in the past (lots of dock and horse weeds). The goal is to convert this acreage into productive forage and eventually be able to provide at least half of the currently purchased hay.
SIPAC
The second stop on the sheep and goat tour will be at the Southern Indiana Purdue Ag Center (SIPAC). Since 2004 SIPAC has been home to a commercial meat goat operation. The herd consists of 100 crossbred females. Breed type is predominantly Boer X Kiko cross with young does being sired by a savannah buck. The herd is managed for commercial production with as little off the farm feed as possible and the end goal being profitable with local market sales of the finished animals. On this stop participants will have the opportunity to tour the goat facilities and hear from researchers from Purdue, University of Kentucky and Kentucky State University who have collaborated on the goat projects at SIPAC. Research projects that will be highlighted are finishing meat goats on summer annuals such as sorghum sudangrass, evaluation of treatment programs to improve internal parasite control, utilizing cross breeding to improve performance and parasite resistance, and utilizing goats for weed and brush control.
To register for the conference please go www.afgc.org and follow the links from the home page. Attendees may register online or by downloading a registration form. If you have any questions regarding details or registration for the 2011 AFGC Annual Conference please contact the AFGC National Office at 800.944.2342 or by email at info@afgc.org.
Once again, we appreciate your ongoing support for AFGC and look forward to seeing everyone in the Crossroad of America, June 12-15.
Tuesday, May 10, 2011
May Calendar
Does it seem like we just past Spring and went right into Summer! Whew!
Be prepared for what seems like a very warm spring and an even warmer summer!
Be prepared for what seems like a very warm spring and an even warmer summer!
Wednesday, May 4, 2011
Farming With Cowpower???
With fuel prices rising daily, as it seems, some small farm producers are using an on standby to plow and plant their fields.
Check it out!
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/dining/04oxen.html?pagewanted=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha210
Check it out!
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/05/04/dining/04oxen.html?pagewanted=1&nl=todaysheadlines&emc=tha210
Friday, April 29, 2011
2011 Farm Management Tour
Purdue University and Indiana Prairie Farmer are accepting registrations to the annual farm management tour. You will be able to see several different farm and co-ops around the state.
The schedule is as follows:
Tuesday, June 27th
Noon - 2:30 pm, EDT
The tour kicks off with a lunch, sponsored by Ceres Solutions at Unger Farmers in Carlisle, IN
3:00 pm - 4:30 pm, EDT
Melon Acres, Oaktown, IN
5:00 pm, EDT
Master Farmer pre-dinner reception with dinner program to follow
Wednesday, June 28th
8:00 am - 9:15 am, EDT
T.S. Boyd Grain, Inc., Washington, IN
10:00 am - 11:15 am, EDT
Carnaham & Sons Farm in Vincennes, IN
Noon - 1:45 pm, EDT
Tour closes with lunch, sponsored by Indiana Farm Bureau at Villwock Farms, Edwardsport, IN
Immediately following the Villwock Farm tour, Dr. Chris Hurt from Purdue will offer the agricultural outlook.
Registration for the tour is available at http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/commercialag/progevents/tour.html
Registration for the Prairie Farmer Master Farmer Banquest is available by calling (765)-494-8593
If you would like to carpool, let me know at the office, and I'll try and connect interested people to share a ride to the farms. 812-738-4236
Thanks!
The schedule is as follows:
Tuesday, June 27th
Noon - 2:30 pm, EDT
The tour kicks off with a lunch, sponsored by Ceres Solutions at Unger Farmers in Carlisle, IN
3:00 pm - 4:30 pm, EDT
Melon Acres, Oaktown, IN
5:00 pm, EDT
Master Farmer pre-dinner reception with dinner program to follow
Wednesday, June 28th
8:00 am - 9:15 am, EDT
T.S. Boyd Grain, Inc., Washington, IN
10:00 am - 11:15 am, EDT
Carnaham & Sons Farm in Vincennes, IN
Noon - 1:45 pm, EDT
Tour closes with lunch, sponsored by Indiana Farm Bureau at Villwock Farms, Edwardsport, IN
Immediately following the Villwock Farm tour, Dr. Chris Hurt from Purdue will offer the agricultural outlook.
Registration for the tour is available at http://www.agecon.purdue.edu/commercialag/progevents/tour.html
Registration for the Prairie Farmer Master Farmer Banquest is available by calling (765)-494-8593
If you would like to carpool, let me know at the office, and I'll try and connect interested people to share a ride to the farms. 812-738-4236
Thanks!
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